We will know when the next big oil spill occurs. I am sure when the last big oil spill occurred people thought it was the biggest event like it in history. Those who can witness the Gulf Coast Spill will feel this is the biggest disaster ever because it is the most current. 50 years from now another environmental disaster may be more astronomical than this which would cause public opinion to change.
Something that most people do not realize is that an environmental disaster is happening every single day. We continue to pollute the Earth with CO2 which is causing one of the largest disasters humans have ever seen. Intense storms, flooding and heat waves are only the tip of the iceberg (oh yeah those are melting too). Our global use of fossil fuels is and has caused a much larger environmental problem than the oil spill. Problem is, the oil spill was fast and visible and climate change is only JUST becoming visible to people who understand it.
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