If we assume that climate change will increase temperatures in Africa we can probably anticipate an increase in civil was. A heap of problems in Africa have been blamed on high temperatures. The argument often goes that hot tropical countries are more “hot headed” and therefore more unstable. Some academics, such as Jeffrey Sachs, have argued that high temperatures in tropical countries are responsible for underdevelopment. Working on the presumption that climate change will not necessarily increase temperatures but produce lower crop yields due to changes in weather patterns we can expect this to have an impact on instability. In other words, if crop yields are lower because of climate change and this increases conflict between groups (as unemployment and poverty often do) then we may be able to observe a positive correlation as well.
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