According to swpc.noaa.gov “Understanding the response of the thermosphere and ionosphere to geomagnetic disturbances has reached a point where some of the F-region ionospheric characteristics can be captured in an empirical model. The integrated effect of magnetospheric energy injection during a storm disturbs the thermospheric temperature, global circulation, and neutral composition.The composition modifications accumulate over tens of hours, have a particular seasonal/latitude structure, and are very slow to recover. The long-lived reaction of the neutral upper atmosphere produces an ionospheric response that is consistent from storm to storm, and so enables the characteristics to be captured by an empirical model. The goal of this first empirical storm-time model is to establish a correction to the F-region peak density, or critical frequency, as a function of season and latitude for any given ap time history of a storm.”
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