Whether the Kyoto Protocol will be extended or replaced is a question for 2012. In an April, 2011, UN climate negotiation conference in Bangkok, the participating nations “agreed curbs on the loss of tropical forests,” and developed, “a goal for rich countries to provide $100 billion (US dollars) a year in aid from 2020.”
Since the Kyoto Protocol is set to expire in 2012, the UN is taking its time to determine whether to extend the Protocol, or draft new measures that will include all the nations, even the ones that didn’t participate in the Kyoto Protocol.
Originally, the Copenhagen Climate Change Summit of 2009 was planned to deliver a long-term agreement replacing the Kyoto Protocol in dealing with climate change. However, the final deal did not mention any long-term global emissions cut targets, target for long term cuts developed countries must make, or a timescale for when or even if the deal could be turned into a legally-binding treaty.
The UN is working on a report that will assess the Kyoto Protocol’s effectiveness and suggest several options for the future, whether extending Kyoto or enacting a new bill. There seems to be continued support for Kyoto, but a new bill would also give leaders like Obama a chance to show how serious they are about being aggressive on climate change. It’s tough to say at this point, although there’s a strong possibility that groups have already drafted bills that they hope could replace Kyoto.
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