We can estimate surface temperature by considering the types of materials on the surface and their inherent chemical properties. Some materials will absorb more heat and others will radiate more. The amount of heat a material absorbs before it increases one degree in temperature is called the specific heat. If we know the specific heat of a material, we can estimate how many degrees it will increase with how much heat applied. The strength of the sunlight will also be different at different latitudes, so that should be taken into account too. If we can somehow measure this and forecast how it might change in the future due to changes in the atmosphere letting more sunrays through, we could possibly estimate surface temperature.
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