Overall, climate change has been shown to have a negative impact on crop yield. While a rise in temperatures does increase crop yields up to a point (around 30 celsius), after that yields drop off significantly. Since the decline in yield when the temperature is above the threshold is much steeper than the increase in yield as the temperature approaches the threshold, the costs of climate change will likely overshadow the benefits. One study found that every day the temperature was over 30 degrees, the yield dropped by about 1%, and that days when the temperature got up to 32 degrees were twice as harmful as days that got up to 31. Over time, if the temperature continues to rise, global yields of key crops, such as corn, rice and wheat could experience dramatic declines.
Increased crop yields may happen temporarily in a few of the colder parts of the world. However, due to the fact that most of our land mass rests near the equator, crop yields on the whole will drop. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has determined that the drop in crop yields in Africa will be particularly severe. In their report, they cite multiple reasons why the crop yields are expected to drop.
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